There are minds who's sole focus is to dwell on issues like these. Well- paid, scholarly minds, that empirically measure, collate data, that aren't swayed by spikes of aberrant data.
No one, not even bi-focaled eggheads will be able to say how long a given bearing WILL last, only a subjective estimation given the data at hand.
The second law of thermodynamics is basically a law of decay. Sooner or later your sandwich bag will be indistinguishable from the surrounding dirt ... so will you.
There are so many variables to consider, heat, mechanical stress, chemical incompatiblities, yada yada.
My own personal law of mechanics: "Things work best when they don't have to."
Like this, if a motor output shaft coupler is perfectly aligned with the load its not really needed to make up for small deviations, it'll last forever. Now articulate that coupler, even a little, (think CV joints) and bets are off.
Looking at how the SC gets driven that shaft gear will be deflected sideways by the driving gear. Bearings that only had to rotate before now have to displace lateral forces, now the puppies are sweating. How long THOSE last is fully a function of their design, composition, components and how much they're being asked to do.
Notice the shaft gear rides on needles not balls, the lateral load is spread along the length of the bearings, not concentrated where the circumference of a ball passes the moment of energy in one tiny spot. Each design has its place.
The plastic cages of the two ball bearings in the SC should last years, if operated within their design parameters, brittling of cages comes from heat, which comes (mostly here) from friction which comes from exceeding a coefficient of "clearance" (i forget the proper term)between two surfaces.
(ya really want all this?)
Yeah, bearings of yore broke down a lot . New manufacturing capabilities for shaping and polishing surfaces to fractions of MILLIONTHS mean far better durability of product than just ten years ago.
Enough. Change your oil, understand that pushing beyond "typical use" conditions means trading longevity for adrenaline. As we used to say "speed costs money, how fast do ya wanna go?"